{"id":9666,"date":"2023-05-13T14:21:35","date_gmt":"2023-05-13T11:21:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=9666"},"modified":"2023-05-13T14:21:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-13T11:21:35","slug":"abdnin-bes-buyuk-bankasindan-secim-ve-dolar-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/abdnin-bes-buyuk-bankasindan-secim-ve-dolar-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019nin be\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck bankas\u0131ndan se\u00e7im ve dolar tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> ABD’nin \u00f6nde gelen 5 bankas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’deki se\u00e7imlere dair raporlar\u0131n\u0131 son haftalarda kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fte o raporlarda yer alan se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na dair senaryo ve tahminler…<\/p>\n

Kritik se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci, uluslararas\u0131 finans \u00e7evrelerinin de g\u00f6zlerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00e7evirmelerine neden oldu.<\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok banka, 14 May\u0131s\u2019a ili\u015fkin raporlar\u0131nda hem se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na hem de d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin senaryo ve tahminlerine yer verdi.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen 5 bankas\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131nki se\u00e7imlere dair senaryo ve tahminleri\u2026<\/p>\n

WELLS FARGO<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wells Fargo ekonomisti Brendan McKenna taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan ve iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce yay\u0131mlanan raporda, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7ilme ihtimalinin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtirken Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde sene sonu dolar\/TL’nin 23 seviyesinde, Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu’nun kazanmas\u0131 halinde ise kurun 15 seviyesinde fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 1: ERDO\u011eAN’IN ZAFER\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cErdo\u011fan’\u0131n g\u00f6revi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi durumunda, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131 muhtemel. Uzun vadede, ekonomik e\u011filimler ve para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e lirada b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. En az\u0131ndan 2024’\u00fcn ortas\u0131na kadar liran\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda, dolar\/TL kurunun 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi sonunda 22 TL’ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini ve liran\u0131n daha da keskin de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\/TL kurunun 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar 23 TL’ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini ve 2024 ortalar\u0131nda 24,50 TL’ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Daha uzun vadede ise d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin t\u00fckenmeye devam etmesi ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fmemesi nedeniyle liradaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 2: KILI\u00c7DARO\u011eLU’NUN ZAFER\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi senaryomuzda, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir merkez bankas\u0131 restore edildi\u011finde ve ortodoks bir para politikas\u0131 uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, lira modern tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck rallilerinden birini ya\u015fayabilir.<\/p>\n

Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131’n\u0131n g\u00f6reve gelmesi durumunda, politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki de\u011fi\u015fiklik, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n TL’ye ve TL cinsi varl\u0131klara d\u00f6nmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, dolar\/TL kuru tahminlerimizi liran\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterecek \u015fekilde ayarlayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda dolar\/TL kuru 2023’\u00fc 15 TL’den kapatabilir ve 2024 ortalar\u0131nda 14\u00a0 TL’den i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n

JPMORGAN<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPMorgan’\u0131n ekonomistleri taraf\u0131ndan may\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanan Avrupa, Ortado\u011fu ve Afrika (CEEMEA) Strateji Raporu’nda yer alan de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ortodoks ekonomi politikalar\u0131na tam olarak d\u00f6nmesi durumunda dolar\/TL’nin y\u0131l sonunda 25 seviyesinde fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ortodokslu\u011fa \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda ise TL’nin daha zay\u0131f seyredece\u011fi ve dolar\/TL’nin y\u0131l sonunda 25 yerine 30 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye’de 14 May\u0131s’ta yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerden sonra olu\u015facak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ortodoks politikalara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi halinde MSCI T\u00fcrkiye Endeksi ABD Dolar\u0131 cinsinden y\u00fczde 74 artacak.<\/p>\n

Ortodoks politikalara \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f senaryosunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde endeks y\u00fczde 29 d\u00fc\u015fecek. (MSCI T\u00fcrkiye Endeksi, B\u0130ST 100\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren belli ba\u015fl\u0131 hisselerden olu\u015furken bu endeks, T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ve orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki segmentlerinin performans\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.)<\/p>\n

BANK OF AMERICA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bank of America (BofA) \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cSaha notlar\u0131: Hi\u00e7bir taraf i\u00e7in net bir zafer, ekonomi i\u00e7in kolay \u00e7are yok\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 notta se\u00e7im senaryolar\u0131na yer verdi.<\/p>\n

Banka eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131yla birlikte faizlerin y\u00fczde 50\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve TL\u2019de y\u00fczde 20-25 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisini yineledi.<\/p>\n

Banka ekonomistleri muhalefetin se\u00e7imleri kazanmas\u0131 durumunda politika faizinin y\u00fczde 50 oldu\u011fu ortamda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fczde 30 ile zirve yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Banka, dolar\/TL\u2018de adil de\u011ferin de 24 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. Kurdaki seviyenin genelde adil de\u011feri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden BofA muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131 durumunda kurun 25 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

GOLDMAN SACHS<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nemli bir di\u011fer bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs, se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin analizinde T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydeden rezervlerinin kurda oynakl\u0131k riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek, piyasan\u0131n T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda keskin bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs ekonomistleri Ba\u015fak Edizgil ve Clemens Grafe taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan 10 May\u0131s tarihli raporda \u201cBize g\u00f6re fiyatlanan faiz beklentileri, muhalefetin kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n piyasa beklentilerinde daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve muhalefetin iktidar\u0131nda fiyat istikrar\u0131na odaklanma program\u0131 do\u011frultusunda faizleri kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

MORGAN STANLEY<\/strong><\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019nin Hande K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, Alina Slyusarchuk ve James K Lord\u2019un da aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu bir grup ekonomist taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan ve nisan ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131manan raporunda \u201cSe\u00e7imlerden sonra politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olursa, TL muhtemelen bekledi\u011fimizden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacakt\u0131r. Politika s\u00fcreklili\u011fi durumunda da bir d\u00f6viz d\u00fczeltmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olabilir\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 1: SE\u00c7\u0130M\u0130 CUMHUR \u0130TT\u0130FAKI KAZANIR<\/strong><\/p>\n

AKP yetkilileri, muhtemelen nisan ortas\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak bir se\u00e7im beyannamesi \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 dengesizliklerin giderilmesini ama\u00e7layan, yap\u0131sal reformlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyan bir ekonomik program\u0131 i\u00e7erecek. Politik de\u011fi\u015fimin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu senaryoda geleneksel politikalara bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Rusya ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri gibi b\u00f6lgesel ortaklardan gelen para giri\u015flerine, d\u00fczenleyici ad\u0131mlara ve aktif rezerv y\u00f6netimine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00f6vizdeki ilk d\u00fczeltme daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulabilir. Durum \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar korunabilir ancak Dolar\/TL’de y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru daha keskin bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu da, politika faizinde k\u0131smi bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. Bu senaryo, yeni bir makro politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girene kadar muhtemelen enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete ve 2024’te bir durgunlu\u011fa neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 2: M\u0130LLET \u0130TT\u0130FAKI KAZANIR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Muhalefetin potansiyel politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, yeni bir makro politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girene kadar meydana gelebilecek olas\u0131 piyasa aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en aza indirmek i\u00e7in se\u00e7imlerin hemen sonras\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde Hazine, TCMB, BDDK ve SPK gibi temel ekonomi ve finansal politika kurumlar\u0131nda rol almas\u0131 muhtemel isimler ve ekipler ile y\u00f6netim yap\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri yeniden ba\u015flayana kadar kur \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck bir kur d\u00fczeltmesi, enflasyon i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir ve politika faizlerinde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fcncelleme gerektirebilir. Bu da daha sert bir durgunluk riskini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Man\u015fet enflasyon beklentisinin se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 y\u00fczde 45 olmas\u0131 ve 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in bu beklentinin y\u00fczde 32 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle politika faizinde ilk hareketin y\u00fczde 30-35’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda faizlerin y\u0131l sonuna kadar y\u00fczde 40-45’e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

2024’te anlaml\u0131 bir enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyreklik bir durgunlu\u011fun ard\u0131ndan nispeten h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 3: S\u0130YAS\u0130 BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130K<\/strong><\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nce bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryoyu, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elinde tuttu\u011fu ancak parlamentodaki \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kaybetti\u011fi b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir sonu\u00e7 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendirmi\u015ftik. Bunun \u015fu anda pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz<\/p>\n

Bu durumu olas\u0131 bir se\u00e7im yenilenmesini gerektirebilecek bir senaryo olarak yeniden kurguluyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir durumda artan siyasi belirsizlik, d\u00f6vizde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe yol a\u00e7abilir ve d\u00fczensiz bir hareket getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – ABD’nin \u00f6nde gelen 5 bankas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’deki se\u00e7imlere dair raporlar\u0131n\u0131 son haftalarda kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fte o raporlarda yer alan se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na dair senaryo ve tahminler… Kritik se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci, uluslararas\u0131 finans \u00e7evrelerinin de g\u00f6zlerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00e7evirmelerine neden oldu. Bir\u00e7ok banka, 14 May\u0131s\u2019a ili\u015fkin raporlar\u0131nda hem se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na hem de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"S\u00f6zc\u00fc","source_url":"https:\/\/www.sozcu.com.tr\/2023\/finans\/abdli-bes-bankadan-secim-ve-dolar-tahmini-7683013\/","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"63","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,1],"tags":[10,1115,756,305,225,82,1099,390,1422,2726,2725],"class_list":["post-9666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-son-haberler","tag-abd","tag-bank-of-america","tag-banka","tag-dolar","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-jpmorgan","tag-morgan-stanley","tag-secim","tag-slider-manset","tag-tahmin","tag-wells-fargo"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}