{"id":6303,"date":"2023-04-15T17:19:53","date_gmt":"2023-04-15T14:19:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=6303"},"modified":"2023-04-15T17:19:53","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T14:19:53","slug":"jpmorgandan-secimden-sonrasi-icin-tahmin-dolar-30-liraya-yaklasabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/jpmorgandan-secimden-sonrasi-icin-tahmin-dolar-30-liraya-yaklasabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan’dan se\u00e7imden sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in tahmin: Dolar 30 liraya yakla\u015fabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Amerikan yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 14 May\u0131s\u2019taki se\u00e7imlerden sonra h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fi ve 1 dolar\u0131n 30 TL\u2019ye yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi tahmininde bulundu. Reuters\u2019\u0131n konuya ili\u015fkin haberinde se\u00e7imlerin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in de d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini aktaran haberde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00e7eki\u015fmeli ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tahmin edilen cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve milletvekili se\u00e7imlerinin, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 etki bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00fclkede son 100 y\u0131l\u0131n en \u00f6nemli se\u00e7imlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7imlerin, hem enflasyondan kaynakl\u0131 hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizinden etkilenen T\u00fcrkler hem de son y\u0131llarda piyasalardaki \u00e7alkant\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131lan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Habere g\u00f6re, JPMorgan uzmanlar\u0131 sonu\u00e7lardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak makro d\u00fczenlemelerin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ancak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi daha geleneksel politikalara ne kadar ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 konusunda iki farkl\u0131 senaryo ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar, ekonomide geleneksel politikalara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda nihai olarak \u00fclkede dolar\u0131n 24-25 liradan i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi ve y\u0131l sonunda 26’ya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u015eu anda dolar 19 TL civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ekonomide bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini artt\u0131ran g\u00f6sterge olan devlet tahvili getirilerinin de y\u00fczde 25’e \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan uzmanlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck te\u015fvik paketlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla lira ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta de\u011fer kaybedecek. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcye g\u00f6re mali bask\u0131 hafifledik\u00e7e yerel halk d\u00f6viz portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131r\u0131rken, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n piyasaya girmek i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Geleneksel politikalara \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f yeterli olur mu?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Haberde ele al\u0131nan bir di\u011fer olas\u0131l\u0131k, se\u00e7imden sonra ekonomide daha geleneksel, yani ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinde genel kabul g\u00f6ren politikalara ge\u00e7i\u015fin daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu bir durum.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar b\u00f6yle bir durumda dolar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 30TL’den i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan uzmanlar\u0131, bu durumda taktiksel bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini ve piyasadaki dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

En iyimser durumda bile enflasyonu azaltmaya giden yolun uzun olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. JPMorgan, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n da d\u00f6viz rezervlerini yeniden in\u015fa etmeyi hedefleyece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlara g\u00f6re geleneksel makro ekonomik politikalara \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, tek ba\u015f\u0131na sermaye giri\u015fini te\u015fvik etmeye yetmeyebilir ve bu durumda lira daha uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fer kaybedebilir.<\/p>\n

Geleneksel makro ekonomik politikalar uzmanlar taraf\u0131ndan, yava\u015f kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131z\u0131, mali bask\u0131 seviyesinin azalmas\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin yeniden in\u015fa edilmesi i\u00e7in yol haritas\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlarla tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar fiyatlara ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin en \u00e7ok ticaret yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferine dayanan TL’nin reel efektif d\u00f6viz kurunun (REER), \u015fu anda “adil de\u011ferinin” yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 32 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahminini yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan’a g\u00f6re geleneksel makro ekonomik politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, liray\u0131 reel de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimine sokarak rayi\u00e7 de\u011ferine geri \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar, “Ancak ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki reel de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 esas olarak fiyatlar y\u00f6nlendirecek ve spot d\u00f6vizin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ysa \u00e7ok m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacak” diyor.<\/p>\n

Reuters ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 AK Parti se\u00e7im beyannamesine ili\u015fkin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberde, beyannamede geleneksel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan bir at\u0131f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; beyannamede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n, reel sekt\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan giri\u015fimciler ve istihdam yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funun belirtildi\u011fini aktarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiliz haber ajans\u0131 22 Mart tarihli haberinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7imden sonra kimin iktidara gelece\u011finden ve uygulanacak politikalardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, ekonomideki sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne yer vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – Amerikan yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 14 May\u0131s\u2019taki se\u00e7imlerden sonra h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fi ve 1 dolar\u0131n 30 TL\u2019ye yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi tahmininde bulundu. Reuters\u2019\u0131n konuya ili\u015fkin haberinde se\u00e7imlerin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in de d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131. JPMorgan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini aktaran haberde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00e7eki\u015fmeli ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tahmin edilen cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve milletvekili se\u00e7imlerinin, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"VOA News","source_url":"https:\/\/www.voaturkce.com\/a\/jpmorgandan-secimden-sonra-tlde-deger-kaybi-ongorusu-dolar-30-liraya-yaklasabilir\/7051251.html","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"2","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[305,1521,82,1524,1422,1523,1522],"class_list":["post-6303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-son-haberler","tag-dolar","tag-jp-morgan","tag-jpmorgan","tag-secim-sonrasi","tag-slider-manset","tag-turk-lirasi","tag-yatirim-bankasi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6303\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}