{"id":59751,"date":"2024-01-31T11:50:47","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T08:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=59751"},"modified":"2024-01-31T12:07:08","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T09:07:08","slug":"istanbula-beklenen-yine-olmadi-silivriye-kadar-gelen-kar-istanbulda-yagmura-donustu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/istanbula-beklenen-yine-olmadi-silivriye-kadar-gelen-kar-istanbulda-yagmura-donustu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130stanbul’a beklenen yine olmad\u0131: Silivri’ye kadar gelen kar, \u0130stanbul’da ya\u011fmura d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> \u0130stanbul’da meteoroloji, valilik ve AKOM’un uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklenen kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n

Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi Meteoroloji Laboratuvar\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Adil Tek, “Genelde atmosfer modellerinden yap\u0131lan tahminler var. Bu modeller \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan yorumlar var. Bunun bu modellerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 zaten herkes rahatl\u0131kla eri\u015febiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Meteoroloji Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc’n\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminler var. Tabi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz tahminler i\u00e7erisinde yer yer, ara ara kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verildi. \u00d6zellikle \u0130stanbul merkezini kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 alamad\u0131. Bunun sebeplerinden bir tanesi atmosfer modellerinde \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc olmayan verilerle baz\u0131 tahminlerin yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Onun i\u00e7in de daha detayl\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel tahminlerin daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc b\u00f6lgesel tahminlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor” dedi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n 8 derecelere kadar inmesi gerekiyor”<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Tek, “En b\u00fcy\u00fck handikaplardan bir tanesi de \u00f6ncelikle s\u0131cakl\u0131k. S\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n en son gelen hava sistemlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in bahsediyorum eksi 1 ile 4-5 derece aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok kritik bir seviye. S\u0131cakl\u0131k s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zaten kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 ola\u011fan olarak d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ama bu 2-3 derecelik s\u0131cakl\u0131k pay\u0131ndaki yan\u0131lmalar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u015feklini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. S\u0131cakl\u0131k 3-4 derecelerde olmaya ba\u015flay\u0131nca ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u015fekli zaten ya\u011fmur, karla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ya\u011fmur \u015feklinde s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu s\u0131cakl\u0131k tahminindeki handikaplar tahminleri de biraz daha g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftiriyor, zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. O y\u00fczden de bazen hatalar da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. Tahmin modellerinden elde edilen sonu\u00e7larla birlikte, bunun yan\u0131nda yorumlar da var ama beraberinde \u00f6zellikle \u0130stanbul’da deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 bu kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131nda \u00e7ok etkin. \u0130stanbul’da kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n 8 derecelere kadar inmesi gerekiyor. Bug\u00fcnlerde \u0130stanbul’da deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 10 ile 11 dereceler aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Merkezin tabii ki \u0131s\u0131 adas\u0131 etkisi var. Bununla birlikte s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 biraz daha yumu\u015fat\u0131yor ve o eksi de\u011ferlere d\u00fc\u015fmesini \u00f6nl\u00fcyor. Bu sebeple ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar daha \u00e7ok ya\u011fmur, karla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ya\u011fmur \u015feklinde s\u00fcrd\u00fc” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Silivri’ye kadar gelen kar, \u0130stanbul’da ya\u011fmura d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor”<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u0130stanbul’un merkezine d\u00fc\u015fmemesinin bir di\u011fer nedeninin “\u015eehrin \u0131s\u0131 adas\u0131” olmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Tek, “Sisteme bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda Silivri’ye kadar geliyor kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u0130stanbul \u00fczerine geldi\u011finde ya\u011fmur ve karla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ya\u011fmur \u015feklinde d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Ama \u0130zmit’ten sonra D\u00fczce’ye do\u011fru da tekrar ayn\u0131 sistem, kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015feklinde devam ediyor. Buradaki problem s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n yeteri derecede d\u00fc\u015fmemesi. \u015eehrin kendi yani i\u00e7 enerjisinden, \u015fehrin \u00f6rne\u011fin ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n egzozu diyelim, ara\u00e7lardan kaynaklanan enerji, \u0131s\u0131tmadan kaynaklanan enerji, \u015fehirdeki hareketlilik yani bir \u015fehrin sald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u0131s\u0131 var. Is\u0131 adas\u0131 dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey \u015fehrin k\u0131rsala g\u00f6re s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"dha-0a27066f81e8bd3137d2e89f953f4a04-2.jpg\"<\/p>\n

“Benzer sistem \u0130stanbul’un merkezinde de kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak”<\/p>\n

Tek, “\u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci haftas\u0131nda gelecek olan sistemler var. Deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, 8-9 derecelere kadar indi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek ayn\u0131 sistem yani benzer sistem \u0130stanbul’un merkezinde de kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha d\u00fc\u015fmesi gerekiyor. Deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 8 dereceye d\u00fc\u015fmemesinin sebeplerinden bir tanesi de tabii ki her \u015fey iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011flamamak laz\u0131m. Ama iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin de etkisi var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc biriken enerjinin yani iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden kaynakl\u0131 biriken enerjinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da denizler yutuyor, absorbe ediyor. Onlar tutuyor, o y\u00fczden de deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lara inmiyor. Yani ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 10’lu, 20’li y\u0131llara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda deniz suyu s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 bu zamanlarda 8 derecelere, 9 derecelere \u00e7ok s\u0131k rahatl\u0131kla iniyordu” dedi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

“S\u0131cak g\u00fcnlerin say\u0131s\u0131 so\u011fuk g\u00fcnlerden daha fazla olacak”<\/strong><\/h4>\n

K\u0131\u015f mevsiminin geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131nda beklenen ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla ya\u011fmur \u015feklinde \u0130stanbul’a d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Tek, “\u0130stanbul’da \u00e7ok yak\u0131n plan i\u00e7in kar g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. Mevsimsel tahminlerde Aral\u0131k, Ocak aylar\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylardaki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tahminlerde o aylar\u0131n s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n genelde ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u015feklindeydi. \u015eubat ay\u0131 da ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu \u015fu demek, s\u0131cak g\u00fcnlerin say\u0131s\u0131 so\u011fuk g\u00fcnlerden daha fazla olacak. Arada so\u011fuk \u015fimdi oldu\u011fu gibi so\u011fuk g\u00fcnler olacak. Belki bir iki g\u00fcn so\u011fuk yapacak veyahut bir hafta so\u011fuk yapacak \u015eubat’\u0131n geneline bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda. Ama bu \u015funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor bize; hi\u00e7 kar ya\u011fmayacak manas\u0131na gelmiyor. S\u0131cak g\u00fcnler say\u0131s\u0131 fazla ama kar ya\u011fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da var. \u00d6zellikle de o \u015eubat’\u0131n ikinci haftas\u0131ndaki sistemin kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bulunuyor. Bu haftadan itibaren s\u0131cakl\u0131klarda tekrar bir art\u0131\u015f var. Bu so\u011fuk hava yerine biraz daha s\u0131cak havaya b\u0131rakacak. S\u0131cakl\u0131klar \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde ortalamalar\u0131n genelde \u00fczerinde. Mart, Nisan i\u00e7erisinde yine \u00fczerinde olacak. Ama beraberinde ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ama ya\u011f\u0131\u015f almaya devam edece\u011fiz. Yine barajlarda \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7mi\u015ftik. Barajlardaki doluluklar da artmaya devam edecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – \u0130stanbul’da meteoroloji, valilik ve AKOM’un uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklenen kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi Meteoroloji Laboratuvar\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Adil Tek, “Genelde atmosfer modellerinden yap\u0131lan tahminler var. Bu modeller \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan yorumlar var. Bunun bu modellerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 zaten herkes rahatl\u0131kla eri\u015febiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Meteoroloji Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc’n\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminler var. Tabi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz tahminler i\u00e7erisinde […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"107","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[107,1],"tags":[309,212,2413,308,1422],"class_list":["post-59751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-yasam","category-son-haberler","tag-hava-durumu","tag-istanbul","tag-kar","tag-meteoroloji","tag-slider-manset"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}