{"id":58950,"date":"2024-01-28T13:41:27","date_gmt":"2024-01-28T10:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=58950"},"modified":"2024-01-28T13:41:27","modified_gmt":"2024-01-28T10:41:27","slug":"iran-neden-savas-istemiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/iran-neden-savas-istemiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran neden sava\u015f istemiyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Gazze’deki sava\u015f art\u0131k pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin korktu\u011fu yere do\u011fru ilerledi.<\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan, Suriye, Irak ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek geni\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n

ABD’nin bu ay Yemen’de Husilere y\u00f6nelik tekrarlanan hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6lgesel yang\u0131n korkusu giderek art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dikkat \u00e7eken husus, \u0130ran’\u0131n bu arenalar\u0131n tamam\u0131nda var oldu\u011fudur.<\/p>\n

Buradaki soru ise Tahran ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ordusunun daha geni\u015f bir sava\u015fa kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran y\u0131llard\u0131r \u0130srail ile sava\u015fan Hamas ve Hizbullah’\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’den ge\u00e7en gemileri hedef alan Husilere para, silah ve e\u011fitim sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran bunun yan\u0131nda, bu ay\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda meydana gelen \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl bombal\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131ya tepki olarak, Irak’ta \u0130srail istihbarat\u0131na ait karargah\u0131 ve Suriye’de I\u015e\u0130D’i hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederek son g\u00fcnlerde kendi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenledi.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca Pakistan ile ortak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiler.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel huzursuzlu\u011fun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu, liderlerinin daha geni\u015f bir sava\u015fa dahil olmak istedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n

Nitekim \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler bunu alenen a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar ve belki daha da \u00f6nemlisi, \u0130srail ya da ABD’ye kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan askeri eylemden dikkatle ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdilik rejim, vekalet sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temsil etti\u011fi uzun vadeli stratejisine g\u00fcvenmekten memnun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

O strateji de \u0130ran rejiminin destekledi\u011fi \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin Tahran’\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 ile sava\u015fmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u015fu ana kadar ne \u0130srail ne de ABD, \u0130ran’a do\u011frudan misillemede bulunma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde herhangi bir gayret i\u00e7inde oldular.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u0131\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda rejimi me\u015fgul eden i\u00e7 meseleler yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ya\u015flanan Dini Lider Ayetullah Ali Hamaney, siyasi r\u00fczgarlar\u0131 atlatarak miras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelere sahip, n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip olmak ve Ortado\u011fu’ya \u0130slami bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak hakim olacak rejimin hayatta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in \u00e7abalayacak birisini halefi olarak g\u00f6revlendirmek istiyor.<\/p>\n

Bunun i\u00e7in de daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sava\u015fa dalmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Ayetullah Hamaney’in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin devrimden bu yana belki de en tehlikeli ayaklanmayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022’den bu yana siyasi muhalefeti kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Mahsa Amini’nin ahlak polisi nezaretindeyken \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00fclke liderlerine kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131 ve teokrasiyi devirmeye kararl\u0131 bir milli hareketin fitilini ate\u015fledi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6rg\u00fcts\u00fcz protestolar\u0131n bile rejimi tehdit edebilece\u011finin bilincinde olan Mollalara ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri, ac\u0131mas\u0131z y\u00f6ntemlerle sokaklar\u0131n ve okullar\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran ayr\u0131ca yolsuzluk, kronik mali y\u00f6netim ve n\u00fckleer ihlalleri nedeniyle uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc ekonomik bir kriz ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Daha az ciddi ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bile Hamaney’in halefi meselesi \u0130ran i\u00e7inde hassas bir konu olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin 1979’daki kurulu\u015fundan bu yana yeni bir dini lider se\u00e7mek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek zaman\u0131n, devrimin babas\u0131 Ayetullah Ruhullah Humeyni’nin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 1989 y\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmekte fayda var.<\/p>\n

O d\u00f6nemde Ayetullah Hamaney, rejimin bu s\u00fcreci d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fctmeyi ba\u015faramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde, Bat\u0131’daki ve \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan teokrasiyi devirmek i\u00e7in rejimin tepe noktas\u0131ndaki bu bo\u015fluktan yararlanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki endi\u015fesini dile getirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn, \u0130ran Uzmanlar Meclisi (88 \u00fcst d\u00fczey din adam\u0131ndan olu\u015fan bir organ), bir sonraki dini lideri se\u00e7mesine olanak tan\u0131yan anayasal yetkilere sahip bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Dikkat \u00e7eken nokta ise bu s\u00fcrecin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gizlilikle \u00e7evrelenmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Ancak \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda yay\u0131nlanan haberler, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi ve iki meclis \u00fcyesi Ayetullah Ahmed Hatemi ve Ayetullah Rahim Tevekkul’dan olu\u015fan \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir komitenin Ayetullah Hamaney’in g\u00f6zetiminde adaylar\u0131 inceledi\u011fine i\u015faret ettiler.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir siyasi ortamda a\u00e7\u0131k bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmek kastediliyor olabilir, ancak kesin olan \u015fu ki, bu sadece ba\u015fka bir devrimci muhafazakar fig\u00fcr\u00fcn atanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bir a\u015fama.<\/p>\n

Ayetullah Hamaney’in bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re tek uygun aday, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 dayatma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek veya miras\u0131n\u0131n bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131, n\u00fckleer silaha ula\u015fma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak, kat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc bir din adam\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00f6zleri Ukrayna ve Gazze’deki sava\u015flara odaklan\u0131rken Tahran, uranyumu daha y\u00fcksek oranlarda zenginle\u015ftirerek, daha geli\u015fmi\u015f santrif\u00fcjler yaparak, balistik f\u00fczelerinin menzilini ve y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rarak n\u00fckleer bomba \u00fcretmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba \u00fcretmesi umut verici derecede yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, Ayetullah Hamaney’in bu tesislere sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 gerektirebilecek davran\u0131\u015flarda bulunarak bu durumu tehlikeye atmas\u0131 pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Bir halef bulma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer emellerini denetleyen Ayetullah Hamaney, \u015fimdilik Ortado\u011fu’daki Arap milislerin Tahran’\u0131n onlara yapmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in para \u00f6dedi\u011fi ve e\u011fitti\u011fi \u015feyleri yapmas\u0131na izin vermekten memnun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Burada, Hamas, Hizbullah ve Husileri kapsayan ve \u0130ran direni\u015f ekseni olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan \u015feyin, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin \u0130srail, ABD ve b\u00f6lgeye kar\u015f\u0131 izledi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejinin merkezinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmekte fayda var.<\/p>\n

Bu strateji, rejimin devlet g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ba\u015fvurmadan veya topraklar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye atmadan muhaliflerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Destekledi\u011fi \u00e7e\u015fitli milis gruplar ve ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri sayesinde, Tahran dolayl\u0131 olarak Washington’u Irak’tan \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131, Suriye rejimini destekledi ve 7 Ekim’de Yahudi devletine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok ac\u0131 verici bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenlenmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Vekil sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131, Hizbullah’\u0131n ara s\u0131ra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla \u0130srail’in kuzey cephesini alevlendirirken, Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131rken ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ile Aden K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki deniz nakliyat\u0131n\u0131 aksat\u0131rken, \u0130ran uluslararas\u0131 topluma \u0130srail’i dizginlemesi i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapmay\u0131 umuyor olabilir.<\/p>\n

\u015eu ana kadar ABD ve \u0130srail politikalar\u0131, \u0130srail ile Gazze aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n kapsam\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmeme zorunlulu\u011funu dikkate alarak hareket etti.<\/p>\n

Bu da her ikisinin de \u0130ran’a misillemede bulunma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu, yaln\u0131zca onun vekillerine kar\u015f\u0131 misillemede bulunacaklar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail’in tasfiye etmeyi vadetti\u011fi Hamas’\u0131n \u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesin. Rejim kendisine \u00e7ok fazla zaman ve para harcad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n bir\u00e7ok vekil ve m\u00fcttefikinden farkl\u0131 olarak Hamas, S\u00fcnni mezhebe mensup ve bu da \u0130ran’da iktidarda olan dini rejimin b\u00f6lgedeki mezhep\u00e7ili\u011fi a\u015fmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n

FK\u00d6’n\u00fcn 1979’da \u015eah’a kar\u015f\u0131 onlara yard\u0131m etmesinden bu yana \u0130ranl\u0131 devrimcilerin a\u015f\u0131k olduklar\u0131 Filistinlileri \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirme hedefi, \u0130ran rejiminin “\u0130slami anti-emperyalizm” misyonunun merkezinde yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ancak Ayetullah Hamaney’in bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6ncelik, \u00e7evredeki sorunlardan ziyade i\u00e7 cephe olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sonu\u00e7 olarak, e\u011fer \u0130srail Hamas’\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rma hedefinde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olursa, \u0130ran rejimi b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle isteksiz de olsa onun \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kabul edecektir.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal olarak, \u0130ran do\u011frudan veya dolayl\u0131 olarak ne kadar \u00e7ok \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara dahil olursa, hedefinden sapm\u0131\u015f veya yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplanm\u0131\u015f bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n, \u015fiddetin \u0130ran’\u0131n tercih etmeyece\u011fi bir y\u00f6ne do\u011fru kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar artar.<\/p>\n

Ger\u00e7ekten de tarih yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalarla dolu ve \u0130ran’\u0131n kendisini uzun s\u00fcredir ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulmas\u0131 ihtimali bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n

Ancak \u015fu da bir ger\u00e7ek ki Ayetullah Hamaney kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n son derece bilincinde ve devrimin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra ayakta kalabilmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almas\u0131 gereken miras\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu iyi biliyor.<\/p>\n

***Bu makale,<\/em> Reul Marc Gerecht & Ray Takeyh taraf\u0131ndan The New York Times gazetesi i\u00e7in kaleme al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve Independent T\u00fcrk\u00e7e taraf\u0131ndan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – Gazze’deki sava\u015f art\u0131k pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin korktu\u011fu yere do\u011fru ilerledi. L\u00fcbnan, Suriye, Irak ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek geni\u015fliyor. ABD’nin bu ay Yemen’de Husilere y\u00f6nelik tekrarlanan hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6lgesel yang\u0131n korkusu giderek art\u0131yor. Dikkat \u00e7eken husus, \u0130ran’\u0131n bu arenalar\u0131n tamam\u0131nda var oldu\u011fudur. Buradaki soru ise Tahran ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"Independent","source_url":"https:\/\/www.indyturk.com\/node\/693721\/d%C3%BCnyadan-sesler\/i%CC%87ran-neden-sava%C5%9F-istemiyor","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"6720","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[6720,1],"tags":[186,13440,315],"class_list":["post-58950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunun-yazari","category-son-haberler","tag-iran","tag-neden-savas-istemiyor","tag-ust-manset"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}