{"id":44188,"date":"2023-12-02T09:58:53","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T06:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=44188"},"modified":"2023-12-02T09:58:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-02T06:58:53","slug":"abdli-yatirim-bankasi-2024-dolar-tl-tahminini-acikladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/abdli-yatirim-bankasi-2024-dolar-tl-tahminini-acikladi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131, 2024 dolar\/TL tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> ABD’li dev yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Citi bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal \u015fartlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,2 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 2024’te y\u00fczde 0,4’e yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisini y\u00fczde 3,5 olarak ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Citi, T\u00fcrkiye’de bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 53,9 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi’nin (T\u00dcFE) 2024’te y\u00fczde 62,7’ye y\u00fckselece\u011fini ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 27,7’ye yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da tahmin etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9,6, 2024’te y\u00fczde 12,4 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 12,1 olmas\u0131 beklenirken, dolar\/TL paritesi i\u00e7in 2024 ortalama 35,93, 2025 ortalamas\u0131 41,59 olarak tahmin edildi. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in dolar\/TL ortalamas\u0131 25,99 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Raporda ayr\u0131ca 31 Mart 2024’te yap\u0131lan yerel se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle ilgili b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizli\u011fin oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Citi’nin de\u011ferlendirmesi \u015f\u00f6yle: “Beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 sergilenen bir y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomik faaliyetlerde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir yava\u015flama bekliyoruz. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan finansal ko\u015fullar ve zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel faaliyetler nedeniyle yumu\u015fayan ihracat\u0131n da etkisiyle, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,2 olarak tahmin edilen GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,4’e gerilemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u2018SE\u00c7\u0130M VURGUSU\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bize g\u00f6re, Mart 2024’te yap\u0131lacak yerel se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle ilgili b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik s\u00f6z konusu. Se\u00e7imlerden sonra yetkililerin normalle\u015fme\/s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcrecine devam edip etmeyece\u011fi ya da al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fekillenmesinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayacakt\u0131r. Her ne kadar baz senaryomuzda ilk senaryoyu kullansak da, Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve ekonomik faaliyetlerde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f zaten zorlu olan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH’nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5’i olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen nispeten y\u00fcksek b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yetkililere olumsuz \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 koymak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir politika alan\u0131 b\u0131rakmaktad\u0131r. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maruziyetine ra\u011fmen, belirtilen zorlu arka plan\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn ve b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f finansman gereksinimlerinin para birimi ve tahviller i\u00e7in zorlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – ABD’li dev yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Citi bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal \u015fartlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,2 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 2024’te y\u00fczde 0,4’e yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisini y\u00fczde 3,5 olarak ortaya koydu. Citi, T\u00fcrkiye’de bu y\u0131l […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":42933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"BirG\u00fcn ","source_url":"https:\/\/www.birgun.net\/haber\/abdli-yatirim-bankasi-2024-dolar-tl-tahminini-acikladi-487651","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"2","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[10,10151,10150,305,1422,10152,2918],"class_list":["post-44188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-son-haberler","tag-abd","tag-bank","tag-citi","tag-dolar","tag-slider-manset","tag-tahmini","tag-tl"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}