{"id":43829,"date":"2023-11-30T18:55:42","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T15:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=43829"},"modified":"2023-11-30T18:55:42","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T15:55:42","slug":"uluslararasi-arastirmacilar-maras-depremini-inceledi-8-ay-once-alarm-vermis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/uluslararasi-arastirmacilar-maras-depremini-inceledi-8-ay-once-alarm-vermis\/","title":{"rendered":"Uluslararas\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, Mara\u015f depremini inceledi: 8 ay \u00f6nce alarm vermi\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Uluslararas\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibi, Kahramanmara\u015f’\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k ve Elbistan il\u00e7elerinde 6 \u015eubat Pazartesi meydana gelen depremleri ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analiz etti.<\/p>\n

7,7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ilk deprem, Anadolu ve Arap levhalar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131ran Do\u011fu Anadolu Fay Zonu’nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da fay segmentini y\u0131rtm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 saat sonra, ilk depremin merkez \u00fcss\u00fcnden yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 kilometre uzakta, 7,6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ikinci deprem meydana gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Sars\u0131nt\u0131lar yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 bin ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesine ve 300 bin binan\u0131n hasar g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Uzmanlar maddi kayb\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 120 milyar dolara denk geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nc\u00fc depremler<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Gelecekteki depremlerin zaman\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve konumuna dair kesin tahminler yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak baz\u0131 saha g\u00f6zlemleri ve sismik verilerden elde edilen parametreler, yakla\u015fan bir depremle ilgili bilgi verebiliyor.<\/p>\n

Hakemli bilimsel dergi Nature Communications’ta yay\u0131mlanan yeni \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada Kahramanmara\u015f depremlerinden \u00f6nceki sismik s\u00fcre\u00e7leri incelemek i\u00e7in 2014’ten bu yana kaydedilen b\u00f6lgesel veriler kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Almanya’daki GFZ-Potsdam Yer Bilimleri Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi’nden Grzegorz Kwiatek, Patricia Mart\u00ednez-Garc\u00f3n ve Marco Bohnhoff liderli\u011finde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ekipte ayr\u0131ca, ABD’deki Stanford \u00dcniversitesi’nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Gebze Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden uzmanlar da yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bulgular, merkez \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7evresindeki b\u00f6lgede 8 ay s\u00fcren bir “haz\u0131rl\u0131k s\u00fcrecine” i\u015faret etti. B\u00f6lgede sismik tehlikenin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edildi.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ba\u015fyazar\u0131 Dr. Kwiatek, “B\u00f6lgeye ait sismik katalog ve dalga formu verilerindeki belirli izleri belirleme amac\u0131yla istatistiksel ve makine \u00f6\u011frenimine dayal\u0131 veri i\u015fleme tekniklerini kulland\u0131k” dedi:<\/p>\n

Bu, depremden yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 ay \u00f6nce ba\u015flayan, ana depremin etraf\u0131nda 50 kilometrelik bir yar\u0131\u00e7ap i\u00e7inde g\u00f6zlemlenen sismik aktivitenin kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc \u00f6zelliklerini belirlememize olanak tan\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki k\u00fcmeler ana depremden 8 ay \u00f6nce ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\u00d6zellikle Haziran 2022’de ba\u015flayan ve \u015fubattaki depremin merkez \u00fcss\u00fcnden yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 kilometre uzakta yer alan iki ge\u00e7ici sismik aktivite k\u00fcmesi ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n dikkatini \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara g\u00f6re, b\u00f6lgedeki “iki ge\u00e7ici uzay-zamansal sismisite k\u00fcmesi”, ard\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerin meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibini y\u00f6neten Dr. Mart\u00ednez-Garz\u00f3n \u015funu vurguluyor: “Bu g\u00f6zlemler, merkez \u00fcss\u00fc b\u00f6lgesinde, k\u0131r\u0131lmadan \u00f6nceki aylarda bir stres birikimi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.”<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, burada elde ettikleri verileri, ABD’nin Kaliforniya eyaletindeki yak\u0131n tarihli b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerden elde edilen bulgularla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylelikle depremleri \u00f6nceden tahmin etme \u00e7abalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir ilerleme kaydedilebilir.<\/p>\n

Mart\u00ednez-Garz\u00f3n, “Gelecekte orta vadeli deprem tahmin sistemleri, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depreme daha iyi haz\u0131rlanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir” diyor.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli tahmin halen m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\u00d6te yandan ekip, merkez \u00fcss\u00fc b\u00f6lgesinde daha k\u0131sa vadeli tahminlere olanak tan\u0131yacak veriler elde edemedi.<\/p>\n

Zira bulgulara g\u00f6re, Kahramanmara\u015f’ta incelenen 10 kilometrelik merkez \u00fcss\u00fc alan\u0131, depremden \u00f6nceki son haftalarda \u00e7ok az sismik aktivite sergilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, ana \u015foktan hemen \u00f6nce sismik aktivitenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair hi\u00e7bir kan\u0131t elde edilemedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131’n\u0131n bat\u0131 kesiminde 1999’da meydana gelen 7,6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u0130zmit depreminde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Prof. Bohnhoff, “G\u00f6zlemlerimiz aylarca s\u00fcren ve b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlere yol a\u00e7an s\u00fcre\u00e7leri daha iyi anlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bulgular ortaya koyuyor. Ancak k\u0131sa vadeli tahminler halen m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil” ifadelerini kullan\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, gelecekteki olaylar i\u00e7in s\u0131cak noktalar\u0131n aylar \u00f6nce belirlenmesi, yetkililere aktif faylar\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki yerle\u015fim merkezlerinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bilgiler sa\u011flayacak.<\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul’un durumu<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Bu arada fay hatlar\u0131ndaki haz\u0131rl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlere yol a\u00e7mayan di\u011fer ge\u00e7ici olaylardan ay\u0131rmak da halen \u00e7ok zor.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada kullan\u0131lan yapay zekayla harmanlanm\u0131\u015f y\u00f6ntemler, en az 7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir depremin beklendi\u011fi \u0130stanbul’daki uzun vadeli g\u00f6zlemleri de besleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – Uluslararas\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibi, Kahramanmara\u015f’\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k ve Elbistan il\u00e7elerinde 6 \u015eubat Pazartesi meydana gelen depremleri ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analiz etti. 7,7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki ilk deprem, Anadolu ve Arap levhalar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131ran Do\u011fu Anadolu Fay Zonu’nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da fay segmentini y\u0131rtm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bundan yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 saat sonra, ilk depremin merkez \u00fcss\u00fcnden yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 kilometre uzakta, 7,6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":43844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"Independent","source_url":"https:\/\/www.indyturk.com\/node\/678006\/bi%CC%87li%CC%87m\/uluslararas%C4%B1-ara%C5%9Ft%C4%B1rmac%C4%B1lar-mara%C5%9F-depremini-inceledi-8-ay-%C3%B6nce-alarm-vermi%C5%9F","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"8","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,1],"tags":[72,517,1422,10079],"class_list":["post-43829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-turkiye","category-son-haberler","tag-deprem","tag-kahramanmaras","tag-slider-manset","tag-uluslararasi-arastirmacilar"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43829"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43829\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}