{"id":42133,"date":"2023-11-23T11:42:02","date_gmt":"2023-11-23T08:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=42133"},"modified":"2023-11-23T11:42:02","modified_gmt":"2023-11-23T08:42:02","slug":"gozler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-kararinda-dolar-29a-kosuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/gozler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-kararinda-dolar-29a-kosuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00f6zler Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131nda: Dolar 29’a ko\u015fuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

( The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) politika faizinde beklenen 250 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra son iki ayda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim yap\u0131lan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) karar metninde yer alabilecek yeni mesajlar da yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Bankac\u0131lar PPK metninde yeni likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesaj bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n

KKM hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda TL cinsi mevduat\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toplam mevduata oran\u0131 son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 7 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle y\u00fczde 38’i a\u015ft\u0131. Mevduat getirisi \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadede ortalama y\u00fczde 46’ya t\u0131rmand\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi mevduattaki dolarizasyonu kademeli olarak azaltmak istese de, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan TL likidite d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem mevduat faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin zaman zaman durmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

Olu\u015fan likidite TCMB’nin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131mlarla piyasadan \u00e7ekiliyor. Bu kapsamda 1 trilyon TL likidite genel se\u00e7imlerden bug\u00fcn\u00fcne \u00e7ekildi. Piyasa bug\u00fcn veya takip eden g\u00fcnlerde TCMB’den yeni likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesaj bekliyor.<\/p>\n

May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki genel se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi 700 baz puana ula\u015fan CDS’te al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f politikalara do\u011fru ge\u00e7i\u015fle birlikte ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 350 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 356\/361 baz puandan tamamlayan T\u00fcrkiye’nin risk primi g\u00f6stergesi 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS bu hafta da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek d\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fc 337\/343 seviyesinde tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel piyasalarda Japonya ve ABD’deki tatiller nedeniyle durgunluk g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken dolar kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n

DOLAR YIL BA\u015eINDAN BU YANA Y\u00dcZDE 35 DE\u011eER KAYBETT\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dolar TL bu sabah g\u00fcne 28.82 civar\u0131nda ba\u015flarken TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fczde 35.1 de\u011fer kaybetti. Kur \u00fczerinde kamu kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn gev\u015fedi\u011fi Haziran ay\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne TL’deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 28.1 oldu. Euro TL ise 31.55 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Reuters anketine g\u00f6re, dezenflasyonda kararl\u0131l\u0131k mesaj\u0131 veren Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n bir haftal\u0131k repo faizini bug\u00fcn 250 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 37.5’e \u00e7ekerek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

TCMB haziranda 650 bp, temmuzda 250 bp, a\u011fustosta 750 bp, eyl\u00fcl ve ekimde 500’er bp olmak \u00fczere be\u015f toplant\u0131da toplam 2,650 bp faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi ancak h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 250 baz puana yava\u015flamas\u0131 genel beklentiyi olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015eTE FA\u0130Z BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Societe Generale (SocGen) analistleri TCMB’nin Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizinin 250 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 37,50 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini payla\u015ft\u0131. SocGen Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda da benzer bir hamle ile politika faizinin y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 40’a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.<\/p>\n

ABD’li banka Morgan Stanley TCMB’nin 250 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaparak faizi y\u00fczde 35’ten y\u00fczde 37,5’e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n

Notta, “B\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir ayarlamaya y\u00f6nelik politika tercihi ve parasal aktar\u0131mdaki gecikmeler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, TCMB’nin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve birikimli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik aktivite ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisini de\u011ferlendirmesi muhtemel” de\u011ferlendirmeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hollanda merkezli bankac\u0131l\u0131k devi ING Bank ekonomistleri de TCMB’nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda h\u0131z keserek 250 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131ma gidece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu.<\/p>\n

Reuters’\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan 21 ekonomist, y\u00fczde 35 seviyesindeki politika faizinde art\u0131\u015f beklerken, tahminler y\u00fczde 37.5 ile y\u00fczde 40 band\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Ankete g\u00f6re politika faizinde 16 ekonomist 250 baz puan, \u00fc\u00e7 ekonomist 500 baz puan, bir ekonomist 350 baz puan ve bir ekonomist ise 300 baz puan art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT anketine kat\u0131lan kurumlar\u0131n beklentisi de politika faizinin Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 37,50 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

AA Finans’\u0131n beklenti anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler, bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n (politika faizi) 250 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak y\u00fczde 37.50’ye \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

TCMB son olarak enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin iyile\u015fme ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in “erken” oldu\u011funu ancak ayl\u0131k bazda enflasyonda yava\u015flaman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

T\u00dcFE BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130 Y\u00dcZDE 36<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00dcFE’nin y\u00fczde 70-75 civar\u0131nda May\u0131s 2024’te zirve yapmas\u0131, daha sonra “baz etkisi, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n birikimli etkileri, TL mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015fin devam\u0131, i\u00e7 talep so\u011fumas\u0131, kur, rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131” gibi etkenlerin toplam etkisiyle TCMB enflasyonda “h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ini\u015f” ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

TCMB’nin 2024 sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 36 seviyesinde. Piyasan\u0131n enflasyon tahminleri bu y\u0131l sonu ve May\u0131s 2024’teki zirve i\u00e7in benzer ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi hala y\u00fczde 45’e yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn ayr\u0131ca TCMB’nin 1430’da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haftal\u0131k verileri de takip edilecek. \u00d6nc\u00fc veriler toplam d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ba\u015flayan art\u0131\u015f trendinin ge\u00e7en hafta 6 milyar dolar ile devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bankac\u0131lar, toplam rezervlerin 134.5 milyar dolara y\u00fckselece\u011fini, bunun da Eyl\u00fcl 2014’ten veri en y\u00fcksek veriye i\u015faret etti\u011fini hesaplad\u0131lar. Ge\u00e7en haftaki de\u011fi\u015fim de dahil edildi\u011finde, Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en hafta Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne toplam rezervlerde ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f 36 milyar dolara ula\u015facak. Resmi veri bug\u00fcn saat 14.30’da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

( The Turkish Post) – Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) politika faizinde beklenen 250 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra son iki ayda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim yap\u0131lan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) karar metninde yer alabilecek yeni mesajlar da yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Bankac\u0131lar PPK metninde yeni likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesaj bekliyorlar. KKM hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda TL cinsi mevduat\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toplam mevduata oran\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":39366,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"Cumhuriyet","source_url":"https:\/\/www.cumhuriyet.com.tr\/ekonomi\/gozler-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-kararinda-dolar-29a-kosuyor-dolar-ve-2143967?utm_campaign","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":"2"},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[9678,6354,305,1003,9679,78,315],"class_list":["post-42133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-son-haberler","tag-29-a-yaklasti","tag-aciklamasi","tag-dolar","tag-faiz","tag-gozler","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-ust-manset"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42133\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}