{"id":11422,"date":"2023-05-30T13:10:40","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T10:10:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=11422"},"modified":"2023-05-30T17:21:54","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T14:21:54","slug":"dolar-tl-2036yi-asti-kur-secim-sonrasi-nasil-bir-seyir-izleyecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/dolar-tl-2036yi-asti-kur-secim-sonrasi-nasil-bir-seyir-izleyecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar\/TL 20,36’y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131: Kur se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden g\u00f6reve se\u00e7ilmesi sonras\u0131 Dolar\/TL kuru bug\u00fcn 20,36’y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kur, se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011finin hakim oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor tazelemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale ederek kuru dengede tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in rezervlerini satmas\u0131 ise uzun zamand\u0131r g\u00fcndemdeydi.<\/p>\n

Hatta Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net uluslararas\u0131 rezervleri bir \u00f6nceki hafta 21 y\u0131l sonra ilk defa s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek eksi 1,5 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n

Peki kuru bundan sonra neler bekliyor?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Analist Beste Naz S\u00fcll\u00fc, 17 kez se\u00e7im kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n izleyece\u011fi ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmenin zor olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00fcll\u00fc, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131n izlenmedi\u011fini vurgulayarak, \u201cKurun bu saatten sonra d\u00fc\u015fmesini kimse beklemiyor\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasada genel kan\u0131, Dolar\/TL\u2019nin suni \u015fekilde 20 seviyesinde tutuldu\u011fu, kurun asl\u0131nda daha da y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

Bank of America, kurda adil seviyesinin 24 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ok say\u0131da yabanc\u0131 kurum da kurun 24-25 seviyesinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

‘Yaz aylar\u0131nda d\u00f6viz dengelenebilir’<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Global Securities Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Grubu Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Serdar Paz\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bir d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu ancak yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131n gelmesi ve turizmin canlanmas\u0131yla beraber bir dengelenme olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cYaz aylar\u0131nda d\u00f6viz ak\u0131m\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz talebi birbirini dengeleyebilir\u201d diyen Paz\u0131, se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6nce ciddi bir \u015fekilde aras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lan bankalar aras\u0131 ve Kapal\u0131\u00e7ar\u015f\u0131 kur makas\u0131n\u0131n da daralaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

Bankalara getirilen kurallar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden insanlar\u0131n fiziki dolara talebinin artmas\u0131yla, Kapal\u0131\u00e7ar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00f6viz b\u00fcrolar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kur ve bankalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fclen kur aras\u0131ndaki makas hayli artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Paz\u0131, bunda se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011finin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n da bir rol oynayabilece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n

‘Yeni anla\u015fmalar gelebilir’<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n rezervleri, kurun ate\u015finin al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve kur ataklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli ara\u00e7lardan biri.<\/p>\n

Peki Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n rezervlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen erimenin etkileri ne olur ve bunun i\u00e7in ne yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir?<\/p>\n

Yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131n bir rahatlama sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan Serdar Paz\u0131, yeni anla\u015fmalar\u0131n da gelebilece\u011fini aktar\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u015eu ana kadar \u00e7ok al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131yla, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinden, \u00c7in\u2019den, Azerbaycan\u2019dan ve o \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen mevduat ile d\u00f6viz rezervinde bir t\u00fcr rahatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131nda ithalat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bunun bir \u015fekilde finanse edilmesi gerekiyor, yeni anla\u015fmalar\u0131n gelmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fazla.\u201d<\/p>\n

‘Sermaye kontrolleri geni\u015fletilebilir’<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kurun bundan sonraki seyrinde, yeni kabinede yer alacak isimler ve yeni ekonomi politikas\u0131 \u00f6nemli rol oynayacak.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar\u0131n talebi, ortodoks iktisadi politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak yeni kabinenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ip vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fi bilinmiyor.<\/p>\n

Analist Beste Naz S\u00fcll\u00fc, \u201cBenim beklentim dolar\u0131n 23,80 seviyesinde durmas\u0131 ve buralarda bir denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu \u015fekilde hesaplamam\u0131n da nedeni; beklenen enflasyon, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n eksi rezervleri, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 ve se\u00e7im ekonomisinden ge\u00e7en ekonominin s\u0131cak para ihtiyac\u0131ndan dolay\u0131\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

Beste Naz S\u00fcll\u00fc, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve piyasalardaki kur aras\u0131ndaki makas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor, bunu da Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n zafer konu\u015fmas\u0131nda bu zamana kadar izlenen politikalardan d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olmayaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini vermesine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

S\u00fcll\u00fc, \u201cKredilerdeki t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k bizdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkileyecek ancak anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kadar\u0131yla kamusal anlamda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yaratacak. Enflasyon re\u00e7etesi konusunda sermaye kontrollerinin geni\u015fletilmesi beklenebilir. Kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin faturas\u0131 politikalara de\u011fil de hanehalk\u0131 ve kurulu\u015flara fatura edilebilir. Bu da d\u00f6vize ula\u015fmay\u0131 daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir\u201d yorumunda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden g\u00f6reve se\u00e7ilmesi sonras\u0131 Dolar\/TL kuru bug\u00fcn 20,36’y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Kur, se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011finin hakim oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor tazelemi\u015fti. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale ederek kuru dengede tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in rezervlerini satmas\u0131 ise uzun zamand\u0131r g\u00fcndemdeydi. Hatta Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net uluslararas\u0131 rezervleri bir \u00f6nceki hafta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"BBC","source_url":"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/turkce\/articles\/c7215p2xpkdo","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"2","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[564,3426,593,78,1422],"class_list":["post-11422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-son-haberler","tag-dolar-tl","tag-dozviz-kuru","tag-ekonomi","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-slider-manset"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}