{"id":10868,"date":"2023-05-25T16:28:47","date_gmt":"2023-05-25T13:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/?p=10868"},"modified":"2023-05-25T16:41:04","modified_gmt":"2023-05-25T13:41:04","slug":"almanya-resesyona-girdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/almanya-resesyona-girdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Almanya resesyona girdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) –<\/strong> Almanya’da y\u00fcksek enflasyonve d\u00fc\u015fen t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 \u00fclke ekonomisini resesyon olarak tan\u0131mlanan ekonomik durgunlu\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckledi.<\/p>\n

Federal \u0130statistik Ofisi’nden yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) Ocak-Mart d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 oran\u0131nda daralarak \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece Nisan ay\u0131 sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve durgunlu\u011fa i\u015faret eden ilk tahmin revize edilmi\u015f oldu. 2022’nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,5 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Arka arkaya \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme resesyon anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

DekaBank ekonomisti Andreas Scheuerle, k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde de bir resesyon ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “Enflasyonun muazzam a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda Almanya’da t\u00fcketim dizlerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc ve t\u00fcm ekonomiyi de kendisiyle birlikte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti” dedi.<\/p>\n

Commerzbank ba\u015f ekonomisti J\u00f6rg Kr\u00e4mer de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131yor. “Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde etkisini g\u00f6sterdi” diye konu\u015fan Kraemer, keskin bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselen fiyatlar ve \u00fccretlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranda artmas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli kay\u0131plar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu, ekonomiyi olumsuz etkileyen fakt\u00f6rlerin \u00e7ok fazla olmas\u0131 nedeniyle gidi\u015fatta iyile\u015fme beklemiyor. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkileri \u015fu s\u0131ralarda kendini tam olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Kredi talebi ise y\u00fcksek faiz maliyetleri nedeniyle \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f durumda. Ekonomist Scheuerle, “Enflasyonist y\u00fckler yava\u015f yava\u015f azal\u0131rken, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckleri art\u0131yor” dedi. Uzman “Enflasyon zehrine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n panzehiriyle m\u00fccadele ediliyor” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Resesyon riski art\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Makroekonomik Politikalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn (IMK) reel ve finansal ekonomiden \u00e7ok say\u0131da veriyi i\u00e7eren g\u00f6stergesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in\u00a0 resesyon riskine i\u015faret ediyor. Bug\u00fcne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergileyen ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar da zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel ekonominin etkisini hissediyor.<\/p>\n

Merkezi M\u00fcnih’te bulunan Ifo Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketine g\u00f6re Nisan ay\u0131nda 6.5 puan olan sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ihracat beklentisi barometresi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 1.8 puana geriledi.<\/p>\n

Ifo anketini y\u00f6neten Klaus Wohlrabe, Alman ihracat ekonomisinin ivme kaybetti\u011fini belirterek, “K\u00fcresel faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor” dedi.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle pek \u00e7ok uzman iyile\u015fmeden ziyade gerileme bekliyor. VP Bank’\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomisti Thomas Gitzel, “Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015fler kasvetli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor” dedi. Uzman, o d\u00f6nemde sanayideki telafi etkilerinin de\u00a0 t\u00fckenmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131na vurgu yaparak, “Bu da \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimde beklenen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki k\u00f6t\u00fc gidi\u015fat\u0131n art\u0131k telafi edilemeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor” diye konu\u015ftu. Uzman bu nedenle Alman ekonomisindeki daralman\u0131n da\u00a0 muhtemelen devam edece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Otomobil ve ayakkab\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda gerileme<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomide ilk \u00e7eyrekte ya\u015fanan yava\u015flama \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ilintilendiriliyor. Zira t\u00fcketim ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 1,2 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. \u0130statistik\u00e7ilere g\u00f6re \u00f6zel hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma konusundaki isteksizli\u011fi \u00e7e\u015fitli alanlarda kendini g\u00f6sterdi. Nitekim \u00f6zel hanehalklar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla yiyecek ve i\u00e7eceklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra giyim, ayakkab\u0131 ve mobilya i\u00e7in daha az harcama yapt\u0131. Buna ek olarak, daha az say\u0131da yeni binek ara\u00e7 sat\u0131ld\u0131. Bunda da plug-in hibrit ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik primlerin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yeni binek ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik primlerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu kaydediliyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yok<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kamu t\u00fcketiminde de gerileme oldu. Buna g\u00f6re kamu t\u00fcketimleri y\u00fczde 4,9 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, y\u00fczde 3,9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen yat\u0131r\u0131mlar olumlu bir etki yaratt\u0131. \u00d6zellikle \u0131l\u0131man ge\u00e7en k\u0131\u015f nedeniyle in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 artt\u0131. Ancak bu durumun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. \u00d6zellikle konut in\u015faatlar\u0131 artan malzeme ve faiz maliyetleri nedeniyle sipari\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet bu y\u0131l GSYH’nin y\u00fczde 0,4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyor. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 1,6 olarak veriliyor. Ancak baz\u0131 ekonomistler bu konuda iyimser d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Commerzbank ba\u015f ekonomisti Kr\u00e4mer, ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,3 oran\u0131nda azalaca\u011f\u0131, bunu 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da durgunlu\u011fun takip edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(The Turkish Post) – Almanya’da y\u00fcksek enflasyonve d\u00fc\u015fen t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 \u00fclke ekonomisini resesyon olarak tan\u0131mlanan ekonomik durgunlu\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckledi. Federal \u0130statistik Ofisi’nden yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) Ocak-Mart d\u00f6neminde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 oran\u0131nda daralarak \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece Nisan ay\u0131 sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve durgunlu\u011fa i\u015faret eden ilk tahmin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"DW T\u00fcrk\u00e7e","source_url":"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/tr\/almanya-resesyona-girdi\/a-65732329","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"0","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"4","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-715","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"63","hide":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[63,1],"tags":[96,3189,1422],"class_list":["post-10868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-son-haberler","tag-almanya","tag-resesyon","tag-slider-manset"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.turkishpost.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}